Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.380803 2.519627 2.669908 2.846160 3.049216 3.278420 3.560642
2025-02-16 2.185532 2.370297 2.581701 2.846333 3.176379 3.586288 4.156035
2025-02-23 2.028150 2.230915 2.470644 2.783186 3.194104 3.740820 4.578180
2025-03-02 1.941591 2.161338 2.428569 2.789841 3.288902 4.000211 5.212658
2025-03-09 1.867994 2.098766 2.385702 2.785238 3.360829 4.233842 5.889642
2025-03-16 1.793422 2.028346 2.325162 2.747584 3.376040 4.378282 6.467935
2025-03-23 1.758154 2.004543 2.322047 2.786536 3.507214 4.738874 7.710266
2025-03-30 1.693189 1.938088 2.256754 2.729447 3.478977 4.809079 8.314977
2025-04-06 1.632097 1.873633 2.190215 2.664760 3.429921 4.828925 8.806940
2025-04-13 1.584682 1.825076 2.142703 2.624426 3.416084 4.915076 9.608100
2025-04-20 1.566977 1.815041 2.147549 2.662677 3.539755 5.317804 12.236032
2025-04-27 1.548125 1.802328 2.147471 2.692644 3.652329 5.735471 16.406665
2025-05-04 1.518855 1.775327 2.127115 2.691532 3.712905 6.067147 22.726568
2025-05-11 1.495696 1.755823 2.116601 2.705525 3.805191 6.530343 42.334201
2025-05-18 1.455158 1.710650 2.066292 2.650173 3.752060 6.553706 59.835557
2025-05-25 1.433816 1.691486 2.053435 2.656315 3.825431 7.009245 NaN
2025-06-01 1.411208 1.669655 2.035448 2.652185 3.876528 7.426979 NaN
2025-06-08 1.382427 1.638137 2.001522 2.618237 3.858390 7.586957 NaN
2025-06-15 1.372536 1.633030 2.007176 2.653356 3.999070 8.492616 NaN
2025-06-22 1.342329 1.597922 1.965531 2.601865 3.933227 8.444600 NaN
2025-06-29 1.311735 1.561599 1.921029 2.543375 3.846197 8.268731 NaN
2025-07-06 1.287639 1.534130 1.889451 2.506826 3.808500 8.330222 NaN
2025-07-13 1.281363 1.532154 1.897129 2.541489 3.946150 9.420283 NaN